NASS Subjective Estimate Reports 1.85 Billion Pound Crop

Last week, growers in each of Blue Diamond’s 9 districts shared with me their outlook on their crop. After these visits, I was predicting a crop in the trees of 1.9 billion pounds. Water quality and availability could significantly lower this number. Often I heard their prediction followed by the caveat, “if the wells hold out.”

Today NASS reported the Subjective Estimate for the 2015 almond crop at 1.85 billion pounds. This seems about right for this time of the year. For the past three years, the Subjective Estimate has been at or higher than actual receipts.

The NASS Objective Estimate is scheduled to be released on July 1, 2015. Given the drought’s impact on last year’s estimate and even greater water stress this year, it will be difficult for NASS to present this estimate with historical confidence levels.