June Almond Market Shipment Report
The NASS Objective Estimate for the 2012 California almond crop was released on June 29 at 2.1 billion lbs. Given the trend of steady growth in global almond consumption, supplies will once again be tight in the 2012 crop. In the 2011 crop year, shipments of California almonds increased by 14%, following a 13% increase the prior year. Shipments will be at or above 1.9 billion by this year’s end. A 2.1-billion-lb. crop will provide no more than ~2.05 billion net lbs., restricting global growth opportunities.
The 2012 crop harvest is shaping up on a more normal pace than the last two years, when crops were harvested late. Even so, industry capacity will be thoroughly taxed well into 2013 to keep up with continued growth in the U.S., Europe, China, the Middle East and the rest of Asia. Last year, capacity for prompt deliveries was tight until spring.
The ABC Position report was released on July 11, with shipments for the month at 141.3 million lbs., an increase of 4.7% over last year’s crop of 135 million lbs. The bigger increase will come in July, when shipments will significantly exceed the 109 million lbs. shipped the prior year.
Market activity was light last week, as the U.S. celebrated Independence Day mid-week. With a little time to digest the Objective Estimate, buying interest is beginning to pick up and should be at full throttle before the end of July.