Fear Is Opportunity In Disguise
Posted On April 6, 2012
Too often people fail to dream big enough. Even worse, instead of focusing on where they want to go, they spend their time thinking about that which they fear. I believe fear is opportunity in disguise.
In the case of the almond industry, a few continue to follow traditional wisdom by fearing that larger almond crops automatically translate to lower prices. Our opportunity is that with a consistent, high-quality and growing supply, we are able to develop new markets at a pace that keeps prices robust. China, for example, is leading the way with incremental consumption of 55 million pounds. Incredibly, for the second consecutive year, both almond yields and prices are increasing.
Another variation of this fear is speculation about the absolute size of the crop. Last spring the tone of the market was increasingly reactionary as estimates statewide increased from 1.7 to 1.8 to 1.85 to 1.9 and finally 1.95 billion pounds from the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Too often the discussion concerns the supply number and not the inherent opportunity of an 11 percent annual growth in demand over the previous five years. Amazingly, the 2011 almond crop will be bigger than the industry initially feared at nearly 2 billion pounds!