The 2014 crop is 95+% received through November, and now projects to 1.825 billion. The very early harvest, rain-free weather, and smaller overall crop, all contribute to the faster conclusion of the 2014 crop harvest.
With a 2014 crop of 1.825 billion, and a total net supply of 2.138 billion, the California almond industry is 53% committed through November, versus 55% last year. We project a strategic reduction of shipments of 10% vs. the 12.9% trend YTD.
We might expect a modest price correction to maintain YTD shipments line with that level. With holidays approaching in the U.S. and the seasonal uncertainty in January of an upcoming bloom, new commitments in the next few weeks can be expected to slow as they typically do. Both buyers and sellers will be evaluating their positions.