The California Almond Industry reported today that shipments for the month of September recorded 163 million pounds, off -8% for the month compared to the prior year. U.S. demand has remained the strongest. Domestic shipments of 48.5 million pounds were off slightly, -2%, for the month and are nearly even with last year on a Year-To-Date basis.
The 2014 early almond crop harvest is progressing at a record pace. Presently, the crop is trending toward a 1.80 – 1.85 billon pound position. This represents approximately 13% less supply than initial industry projections. The limited supply will compel a reduction from last year’s shipments of up to 10%, ultimately impacting all markets to varying degrees.
Growers are evaluating the 2014 and 2015 almond crop potential together, with concerns that existing drought conditions will result in tight supplies over a two-year horizon. Through the first two months of shipments for the 2014 crop, increased pricing and limited offers for forward positions have been used to slow the pace of commitments.
Looking forward, the industry is likely to continue with a focus on prompt sales delivered over a short horizon.
Look for my next update on November 12th.