2021 NASS Objective Estimate: July 13, 2021

Yesterday, the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) announced the Objective Estimate for the 2021 California almond crop at 2.8 billion meat pounds. The Subjective Estimate in May was 3.2 billion meat pounds. The objective estimate is based on 1.33 million bearing acres. The swing from the subjective and objective is a difference of 400 million pounds. The 2.8 billion pounds objective is at the low end of expectations while most in the industry centered on 3.0 billion pounds. The Nonpareil variety representing 39% of the crop is forecasted 15% below last year’s supply. Reasons stated for the lower than expected estimate include a lack of rainfall and low water allocations. Furthermore, extreme heat this summer and a recovery required from the high yields from last year on stressed orchards. Read More >