2014 California Almond Market Forecast

Today NASS reported the Subjective Estimate for the 2014 crop is 1.95 billion pounds.  This is 2.5% below last year’s production of 2.0 billion pounds. Last year’s estimate was within 1% of the actual 2013 crop.  On average, the Subjective Estimate over the last five years has been within 5% of actual crop receipts. For the past two years, the Subjective Estimate has been at or above actual receipts.

Despite receiving good precipitation for March and April, the effect of the continuing drought conditions and early season high temperatures will have an impact on the crop in terms of total quantity, sizing and quality as we still have 3-4 months before harvest.  The crop we eventually harvest may be different than what we see on the trees today.

Many markets remain very low on inventory and California industry shipments continue to move at a robust pace.  We project carry-out inventory of 350 million pounds in July.  There is strong demand across global markets as we move into the summer months.

To read the detailed report click here….  “2014 California Almond Forecast”