2012 Almond Crop Update

Almond Insights – Industry Update

April 10, 2013

2012 California Almond Crop is ~75% Shipped & Committed
Year-To-Date shipments of California almonds continue to track as expected, flat to last year, limited by supply. Current year crop receipts are 1.878 billion pounds, 7% behind prior year, continuing to project a final total below 1.9 billion pounds.

Eight months into the almond industry’s fiscal year, ending inventories project to be less than 240 million lbs., the lowest level in the last five years. The 2012 California crop is greater than 75% shipped & committed, with committed backlog of less than 60 days of global supply. Based on low ending inventories for the current crop, there will be inadequate supplies of pollinators to support market demand from early summer through October when the new crop is available.

The U.S. is driving industry growth. Last month’s shipments were up 8% bringing the year to date increase to 8% over prior year, an increase of 27 million pounds. Export sales globally were down for the month versus prior year driven by declines in China, India and the Middle East. On a year-to-date basis, China and the Middle East are tracking behind prior year, 12% and 24% respectively, while India is up 15%. European shipments for March were off slightly leaving Europe flat year-to-date.

The 2013 almond crop is now well into the differentiation process. The generally good conditions the region has experienced since the completion of the bloom has promoted the growth of the developing nuts and will also help to increase the proportion of nuts retained by the trees.

Historical Carryout (lbs. million) and Projected Weeks on Hand for Current Crop Year

 

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