2012 California Almond Crop Projected To Grow 3%
The NASS Objective Estimate for the California almond crop was released today, June 29, 2012 at 2.1 billion lbs. This 2012 crop is projected 3% larger than the 2011 crop and slightly more than the Subjective Estimate of 2.0 billion lbs. released earlier on May 3, 2012. The Objective Estimate is in line with industry projections and will allow for modest global consumption growth. However, at only 3% above last year, the global consumption growth trend of the last 5 years will necessarily be slowed. Over the last two crops, average consumption growth has exceeded 13% annually.
The 2011 crop was completely consumed by the growing global demand for almonds. With a known Objective Estimate and a limited supply, prices will stabilize and firm looking forward.
Last year, most California processors ran at or near capacity well into the spring months and we expect the trend to continue this coming year. With limited remaining inventories of pollenizing varieties, the transition into 2012 crop will result in short-term shortages well into the processing season.
