NASS Objective Estimate Shocks Industry

July 12, 2013 – The industry was shocked by the NASS Objective Estimate of 1.85 billion pounds for the 2013 crop.  The eyeball test of the crop appears much larger, but misses the quantitative sampling of kernel size.  Handlers raised 2013 selling prices by $.40 a pound in response, matching 2012 prices and very few buyers responded.  Yesterday, the June shipments report came in at 137 million, slightly below last year’s record of 141 million.  The more compelling news was that commitments now are reporting at 50 million pounds higher than last year.  This confirms our market intelligence that there is now very little 2012 volume of any item available.  European and Chinese inventories are low, they still need to buy and will slowly enter the market as there is confidence from sellers that these prices are sustainable.

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